2040 strategy: Unlocking Europe’s secure, affordable and circular energy

As Europe stands at the threshold of a new era in climate ambition, with the 2040 Climate Target on the horizon, it must make a critical decision: will it unlock the full potential of its own circular energy resources or continue to rely on fossil energy imports that undermine sustainability, sovereignty, and affordability?

The European Biogas Association (EBA) has made the path forward clear with a proposal to set up a binding target of 100 billion cubic meters (bcm) of biogases by 2040. Encompassing both biogas and biomethane, biogases are more than renewable energy sources. They are the engine of a secure, affordable, circular and resilient energy future for Europe.

This call comes just days after the release of the REPowerEU Roadmap, which rightly recognised the strategic role of biogases in Europe’s energy mix. Published on 13 May, the EBA’s Roadmap to 2040 outlines how this sector, already providing 19 bcm of renewable gas (EU-27 production), equivalent to 7% of EU natural gas demand, can grow more than fourfold by 2040. The technologies, sustainable feedstocks and investment appetite are in place. What’s missing is decisive political leadership.

A sector ready to deliver

Europe’s biogas and biomethane value chain is one of the continent’s underleveraged climate and energy assets. Over €27 billion in private capital has already been committed to expand biomethane capacity by 2030. Yet without firm legislative backing, this momentum risks stalling. With the right framework, this sector can deliver at least 101 bcm by 2040 and 151 bcm by 2050, according to sustainable feedstock estimates. The 2040 target for biogases could:

• • Power more than 90 million European households;
  • Avoid over 483 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually;
  • Provide 13.8 million tonnes of organic fertilisers, reducing dependence on imports and revitalising European soils.

In other words, biogases don’t just reduce emissions by replacing a significant share of fossil gas in industry, transport, and heating. They reduce dependency: on fossil fuels, on imported fertilisers, and on fossil-derived industrial CO₂. They create local jobs, support farmers, and ensure that economic value stays in Europe.

Three interconnected circular pathways

At the heart of the EBA’s vision are three circular economy pathways, all enabled by the production and use of biogases. Firstly, renewable energy generation: Biogases offer a uniquely flexible form of renewable energy. Biogas is storable and dispatchable, enhancing grid stability and supporting the integration of intermittent renewables. Crucially, biomethane can flow through existing gas infrastructure, minimising investment needs and accelerating the fossil gas phase-out.

Secondly, organic fertiliser production: Digestate, the by-product of anaerobic digestion, is a potent organic fertiliser. It helps restore soil health, displaces carbon-intensive synthetic fertilisers, and supports the EU’s Farm to Fork and Soil Strategies. With 40% of Europe’s nitrogen fertiliser needs currently imported, this shift is not only environmental, it’s strategic.

Thirdly, biogenic CO₂ utilisation: Biogas upgrading technologies already separate over 6.4 Mt of CO₂ annually. This biogenic CO₂ can be captured and reused by industries currently reliant on fossil-derived CO₂, decarbonising critical supply chains in food, beverages, cement, and synthetic fuels. With industrial demand for CO₂ projected to reach 260–320 Mt per year by 2050, this is a major opportunity for clean growth.

Time for binding action

Despite the sector’s established contributions, biogases are not yet fully reflected in current EU climate and energy legislation. Introducing a binding target of 100 bcm by 2040 would help align policy frameworks with the sector’s potential and support more coordinated development across Member States. Such a target would:

• • Align with the REPowerEU Plan’s objective to replace fossil gas with renewables;
  • Provide the long-term policy clarity investors need;
  • Anchor biogases in the EU’s 2040 Climate Targets and net-zero trajectory;
  • Create the market scale and confidence needed to unlock full deployment across all Member States.

This target must be accompanied by a bold policy framework in the form of a European Biogases Charter. The Charter would coordinate efforts across Member States and define the enabling conditions needed to meet the 100 bcm target. These include:

• • National pledges for biogases: Member States would commit to concrete action plans reflecting their specific potentials.
  • Accelerated permitting: Digital, harmonised, and streamlined regulatory procedures to reduce delays and encourage investment.
  • Market design reform: Stable support schemes that reward environmental and circular economy benefits.
  • Infrastructure development: Investment in grid access, upgrading facilities, and storage capacity to scale production.
  • Recognition of circular contributions: Acknowledging biogases' roles in renewable energy, organic fertilisers, and CO₂ capture in EU taxonomy and policy frameworks.
  • Strategic cooperation: Structured dialogue between the EU, national governments, and industry to ensure coherence and impact.
  • Biogases coordinators: Appointed in each Member State (to guide implementation and align cross-sectoral policies.

More than energy: a path to resilient, local prosperity

One of biogases’ greatest strengths lies in its decentralised nature. Biogas plants are inherently local, transforming waste into energy and fertiliser within communities. This creates local jobs, empowers rural economies, and enables citizens to directly participate in the green transition.

At a time when energy costs and geopolitical tensions have shown the fragility of external dependencies, biogases offer something rare: resilient, homegrown, and circular energy.

The technologies exist. The feedstock is available. The industry is mobilised. All that’s missing is the political signal to scale. Europe has a clear choice: continue to underutilise one of its most strategic climate solutions or seize the opportunity to lead the world in renewable, circular energy. The biogases value chain is ready. Europe must now act with vision, courage, and urgency.